ST3 cannot be delivered on time, so Sound Transit is considering light rail cuts

Sound Transit will celebrate opening a light rail connection across Lake Washington later this month, but behind the excitement, the agency faces a brutal financial future. Sound Transit can't deliver on its ST3 promises to voters by 2046 as planned.

Rising land and construction costs have helped pushed project costs so high, Sound Transit's governing board is now considering options to save money by potentially cutting projects. Board members met Wednesday to figure out a strategy.

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Sound Transit's CEO Dow Constantine likes to say the agency is on firm financial footing right now. It has billions in cash on hand. But he warns that starting in the mid-2030s, the agency will hit major cash flow problems. The crunch will last a decade.

The agency spent much of the last two years figuring out how it got here. Now, the board has a menu of three cost-cutting approaches. At its March 18 retreat, the Sound Transit Board weighed its options.

Think of them like combo meals at a fast-food restaurant. Each meal has a drink, a burger, and fries. On Sound Transit's menu, each combo bundles projects that the agency would "defer" (delay indefinitely). Each bundle adds up to $35 billion in savings. A Happy Meal with an unwelcome prize: no light rail for you.

No community waiting for light rail escapes the uncertainty.

In Seattle, the Ballard line could halt at Seattle Center, or at Smith Cove, the northern terminal where cruise ships dock. That's well short of the line's intended destination at Market Street. Two stations on the line, Denny Way and South Lake Union, could merge into one.

The West Seattle extension could end at Delridge Station. That would skip an expensive tunnel to the commercial heart of West Seattle at Alaska Street.

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The three packages mix and match other cuts, too. One option drops planned stations at Graham Street and Boeing Access Road, south of Seattle.

Two options stop the Tacoma Hilltop trolley short of Tacoma Community College.

Another option halts the Everett extension near Boeing's factory south of town.

And one option kills the South Kirkland-to-Issaquah line entirely. Expect to see "Save Issaquah Light Rail" t-shirts in the coming months.

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CEO Constantine doesn't expect the board to pick any single package as they are currently presented. He expects the board to mix and match: favor one approach, swap in elements from others.

Or, the board could decide that none of the options are acceptable, reject all three, and pledge to find new sources of funding.

Why not radically redesign ST3 projects?

At a recent press briefing, reporters asked whether Sound Transit had considered big design changes. Shorter, driverless trains. Shallower tunnels. Radically different routes.

But major redesigns force the agency to restart its years-long environmental review and public comment process. The board is unlikely to consider those changes realistic, Constantine said.

The agency has too much invested in its current designs. Whether its board will walk away from those sunk costs is an open question.

Could ST3 be saved by money from the sky?

Most funding for Sound Transit's voter-approved ST3 expansion comes from local taxes. Any federal money on top of that would be gravy. It's hard to fill a $35 billion hole with gravy. But it could make a dent. And the agency has strategies to attract federal dollars.

Even as it scales back the system, it's not canceling projects outright. Deferred lines would keep their design work going to the 30% mark. That's roughly the "shovel ready" threshold. If Congress passes another infrastructure bill in the late 2020s or early 2030s, these projects could come back to life.

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Another way to save: cut the cost of planning itself. Sound Transit's projects go through lengthy environmental reviews. Washington lawmakers have made some progress streamlining its approval process (a bill still needs Gov. Bob Ferguson's signature). If the feds follow suit, something agency staff says has bipartisan support, costs and timelines could shrink.

State lawmakers could also raise the cap on what Sound Transit can borrow. Funding so many projects at once, especially during the construction-heavy mid-2030s, is like trying to suck a chunk of strawberry at the bottom of a milkshake through a skinny straw. A higher borrowing limit increases the cash flow. It’s like upgrading to a wide bubble tea straw.

Still, construction is the biggest cost driver. Any realistic plan will probably include some painful cuts.

An earlier version of this story stated the final stop on a shorter West Seattle line would be Avalon Station. It's Delridge Station.